Purchasing Power Parity
Forward exchange rates are exactly determined by interest rates through an arbitrage condition. But there is a deeper question here: why is the interest rate in euros higher than the interest rate in U.S. dollars?
Economists are not sure, and here is why. The most important question is whether purchasing power parity (PPP) holds. The PPP theory of exchange rates posits that prices of identical goods should be the same in all countries, differing only in the costs of transport and duties. But does PPP hold? Do $108.86 dollars buy the same amount of goods—say apples—that €100 buy? If an apple costs $1.0886 in the United States, and €1.00 in Europe, then PPP holds. What if it does not hold? What if, for example, an apple costs $1.00 in the United States and €1.00 in Europe? Then we should export cheaper U.S. apples to Europe, sell them for €1, and earn a profit of $0.08/apple. Transport costs and import/export barriers (such as tariffs) are probably too high to permit an apple arbitrage, but there are other, more easily transportable commodities, ranging from diamonds, to gold, to gasoline. As economists, we expect prices for easily exportable and tradeable commodities to obey PPP. But other goods need not obey PPP: Land in France is not the same as land in Manhattan and it cannot be exported. Concrete is too costly to transport, because shipping costs are too high. Raspberries spoil too easily to transport long distances. Maple syrup has little demand in Europe, and is not easy to resell. A work hour by a Czech hair stylist is not same as a work hour by an American hair stylist. And so on. Indeed, PPP does not even hold inside one country: apartments and plumbers cost more in Manhattan than in New Jersey. Gas costs more in San Francisco (CA) than in San Antonio (TX). The reasons why PPP does not hold inside a country are the same as why PPP does not hold across countries. But, if after taking transport costs into account, gas is too expensive in San Francisco relative to San Antonio, someone will start shipping it from San Antonio to San Francisco sooner rather than later.
Still, let us assume for a moment that PPP does hold—that is, that goods in Europe and goods in the United States are worth the same—and that PPP will also hold in the future. This will allow us to determine relative inflation rates. For example, an apple that costs $1.0886 in the United States today costs €1 in Europe today. If the U.S. dollar inflation rate is 2%, then the apple will cost $1.0886 · 1.02 = $1.1104 next year. We can lock in a future exchange rate of 1.0783 $/€, which means that next year’s U.S. apple will be worth $1.1104/1.0783 = €1.0297. In sum, a Euro-apple, costing €1 today will cost €1.0297 next year, which means that the euro inflation rate is 2.97%.
Another way to state this is that purchasing power parity implies that real interest rates must be equal. After all, a real interest rate is just an inflation-adjusted nominal interest rate. (You can think of money here as a good like apples, but one which increases not only through inflation, but also through interest earnings.)
Posted under finance.
Tags: commodities, currencies, economists, goods
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